BTC 32k+?! Maybe I am crazy, but it's possible
Updated: Jul 26, 2019
This is not a prediction or a trading advice, please take your own risk during trading. Like any other traders, I saw two huge wicks on the weekly candle, which can be interpreted as a bearish candle. And a lot of people shorted it all the way from 14k to 10k. I think they are excellent to spot that. But there are several things bothering me:
1) If the bull trend ended at 14k, then we didn't reach the ATH .
2) There is no shorts capitulation movement on the weekly candles.
3) We experienced the shortest bullish cycle for now within only 121 days.
If the 14k is the end of 2019 the bull run, we can come to a very simple conclusion. That is, we had a 400% bull run in 121 days, which is remarkable.
The only problem for this conclusion is that it's an unnatural pattern. The reasons are obvious:
1) After a very strong buying force broke the 10k (people's extremely strong mental resistance), we stopped on the half of the way to retest the previous high. Yet, the 10k held three extremely violent with 200m volume test and rejected on Bitmex? Yes, it broke the 10k and bounced from 9.8k, which is a huge stop loss hunting in technical analysis , this is a piece of strong evidence that can deny the 14k top.
2) It's weird that a parabolic move can be ended without a full capitulation pump, what I mean is that all the buyers and sellers are buying because the market entered the fomo mode and shorts kept stopped out while buyers fomo in. In that situation, we will form a more than 70% market buying volume and several bigger and bigger capitulation candles on the weekly chart when the market goes up, but it didn't exist.
3) The cycle period is strange in the hype. Normally the hype cycle has a longer bullish cycle than the bearish cycle. But 121 days is not only shorter than the shortest bullish cycle in BTC history that continued at least 141 days, but also shorter than the last bearish cycle.
All these reasons don't add up to the 14k top. What about thinking in another way:
1) This is a simple 30% pullback and 10k->9.8k were stop loss hunting process, or a Wyckoff ST and spring?
2) After the consolidation in here, we will break the 14k top then go much higher.
3) Five weekly capitulation candles with bigger and bigger shapes exist, eventually hit the 32k, which is a 1000% growth after 3.2k bottom.